I've been reading Future we Want, Rio+20's outcome document and seeing what I make of it. There has been a groundswell of protest over its weakness and inability to enforce definite cuts in emissions. No new binding commitments to sustainable development have been decided. In the process, progress on sustainable development at the mega-multinational level has reportedly come to a stand still.
Section II lists all the prior agreements states have made that the Conference of Parties would like to reaffirm. Just to list them off..
Rio Declaration on Environment and Development
Agenda 21
Programme for the Further Implementation of Agenda 21
Plan of Implementation of the World Summit on Sustainable Development (Johannesburg Plan of Implementation)
Johannesburg Declaration on Sustainable Development of the World Summit on Sustainable Development
Programme of Action for the Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States (Barabados Programme of Action)
Mauritius Strategy for the Further Implementation of the Programme of Action for the Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States
Programme of Action for the Least Developed Countries for the Decade 2011-2020 (Istanbul Programme of Action)
Almaty Programme of Action: Addressing the Needs of Landlocked Developing Countries within a New Global Framework for a Transit Transport Cooperation for Landlocked and Transit Developing Countries
political declaration on Africa's development needs
New Partnership for Africa's Development
United Nations Millennium Declaration
2005 World Summit Outcome
Monterrey Consensus of the International Conference on Financing for Development
Doha Declaration on Financing for Development
outcome document of the High-level Plenary Meeting of the General Assembly on the Millennium Development Goals
Programme of action of the International Conference on Population and Development
key actions for the further implementation of the Programme of Action for the International Conference of Population and Development
Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action
I have no background in any of these agreements. I'm just listing them for your and my further reference. From here I want to look at the actual wording of the document to see how many references to concrete action to implement sustainable development are made vs. actual commitments or plans.
As climate change happens it is forecast that the Jet Stream will slow down which will form Rossby Waves, leading slowing moving systems of increased or decreased temperature. This is the a picture of the Jet Stream on June 26, 2012 at 16:41 EST.
As you can see the Jet Stream has been pushed up in this map. Much of the central United States is within the southern half of the system meaning temperatures are hot. North of the wave is cold. The system, in this condition, moves slowly.
Denver has just had 5 days in a row of temperature over 100 degrees Fahrenheit, tying its record. Numerous other areas in the Midwest have also had intense 100 degree weather. Fires within the west, particularly Colorado, have been intensifying.
Fresno, on the other hand, is on the north side of the system. They just had a high of 82 F today tying the record for the coolest final weekend of June. As I said, Fresno is on the cool north side of the system. This is what we can expect as climate change continues.
The heat wave is unlikely to subside soon as a new high pressure system is coming up from the Gulf of California. Here are some maps from 6/30/12 and 7/2/12. Maps are available from Daily Weather Maps, NOAA.
If one reads the Adaptation to Climate Change in the Context of Sustainable Development and Equity section of TAR, Working Group 2 Chapter 18 I believe, there is a portion that states that most stakeholders in north America believe we have the technology available for adaptation (p904). This has been a mantra of conservatives pushing for less regulation of GHGs. Things like 'I don't know, I'd like it a little warmer,' in reference to some kind of tropical paradise abound. The Midwest and Rocky Mountains aren't on the ocean though. The climate systems with the type of heat we're talking about are not equivocal in the least. Besides, who would want that kind of heat without the option of jumping into the ocean every once and a while?
This kind of weather, swinging from extreme heat to extreme cold, is the kind of thing that ruins agriculture. Emissions are bound to increase as people retreat indoors and turn their air conditioning up. Deaths and illness from heat related health problems will increase producing stress on our healthcare system. Wildfires will increase in the west as will depletion of aquifers as farmers increase their water usage to ensure their crops don't die.
TAR WG2 Chap 18 states that forestry and agriculture are the 2 areas in which adaptation will be the most successful (p904). All that has to be put in place are action plans for ensuring the infrastructure is available. It has been over a decade since 2001, when the report came out, and not enough has been done.
This is a very bad situation. From what I understand thus far Rio+20 was a bust in terms of ensuring that measurable and binding goals for sustainable development were set. This ensures that we are headed down the wrong path in mitigating this problem. Adaptation is a key goal of sustainability. To not have measurable required regulation in place is to ensure a hasty careless action plan in the future.
I'm going to try to write some more on Rio+20's 'Future we Want' outcome document in the coming days. I'll also be addressing National Action Plans for Adaptation that were discussed at the UNFCCC conference in Bonn in late May. I'll be reviewing two case studies on Laos and Malawi.
I've included a Youtube video that does a good job explaining changes in the Jet Stream. You can find the portion at 8:28.
Temperatures for 6/26/12.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html
Third Assessment Report Working Group Chapter 18
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/pdf/wg2TARchap18.pdf
The photo of the Jet Stream
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Wind/JetStream.aspx
Weird Winter - Mad March - Part 1 video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-1iBHAivmw&list=PLCDEC880116BEF63D&index=61&feature=plpp_video
